Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
